Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure.

This paper investigates the relationship between investors' attention, as measured by Google search queries, and equity implied volatility during the COVID-19 outbreak. Recent studies show that search investors' behavior data is an extremely abundant repository of predictive data, and investor-limited attention increases when the uncertainty level is high. Our study using data from thirteen countries across the globe during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (January-April 2020) examines whether the search "topic and terms" for the pandemic affect market participants' expectations about future realized volatility. With the panic and uncertainty about COVID-19, our empirical findings show that increased internet searches during the pandemic caused the information to flow into the financial markets at a faster rate and thus resulting in higher implied volatility directly and via the stock return-risk relation. More specifically for the latter, the leverage effect in the VIX becomes stronger as Google search queries intensify. Both the direct and indirect effects on implied volatility, highlight a risk-aversion channel that operates during the pandemic. We also find that these effects are stronger in Europe than in the rest of the world. Moreover, in a panel vector autoregression framework, we show that a positive shock on stock returns may soothe COVID-related Google searches in Europe. Our findings suggest that Google-based attention to COVID-19 leads to elevated risk aversion in stock markets.

Weather, mobility and the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic

Purpose: The authors investigate the effect of weather and mobility on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The authors first estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) as a proxy of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and then study the relationship between the latter and weather and mobility in a panel data framework. The authors use US daily infections data between February and September of 2020 at the county level. Findings: The authors find that lower temperatures are associated with a higher Rt, and this effect is greater at temperatures below 0°C. In addition, mobility reductions related to certain types of locations (retail and recreation, transit stations and workplaces) are effective at reducing Rt, but it is an increase in the time spent in parks that most helps reduce the spread of the pandemic. Originality/value: The estimates imply that a 20°C fall in temperature from summer to winter would increase Rt by +0.35, which can be the difference between a well-controlled evolution and explosive behavior of the spread of the virus. Applying these coefficients estimated with US county data to aggregate series from other countries helps explain the resurgence of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2020. The results show that mobility reduction and social distance are best policies to cope with the Covid-19 outbreak. This strong policy lesson will help facing similar outbreaks in the future. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Economic Studies is the property of Emerald Publishing Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Tourism demand for Malaysia: Further evidence from panel approaches

This study investigates the influence of price factors on tourist visits to Malaysia from 21 countries. The study samples chosen in this study are between 2000 and 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak. Panel approaches are utilized on five regions. The results show that the tourism demand from Asian countries has a positive impact on tour prices and income, but these variables negatively affect the tourism demand from ASEAN and western countries. Most tourists in the regions choose Singapore and Indonesia as substitute destinations, while Thailand is a complementary destination for Malaysia's tourism industry. The findings are invariant among the regions. However, traveling costs do not reduce the tourism demand;hence, this factor is negligible for Malaysia. In addition, the tourism demand from ASEAN countries increases with a depreciation in Ringgit Malaysia, but the effect is the opposite for China, Asia, and western countries. The overall findings show that different regions react differently to price factors. © 2022 The Authors

What are the unintended consequences of protest? A panel analysis linking anti-Corona-protest to satisfaction with democracy in Austria

Survey data from the Austrian Corona Panel Project show that in November 2021 about 17% of Austrians support the demonstrations against the measures to contain the Corona pandemic. At the same time, the proportion of people who think that demonstrations against the measures should be allowed has decreased by 5 percentage points. This suggests a broad approval of the measures within the population and a rejection of those who demonstrate against them. However, according to the impression in media coverage, the protesters themselves are not influenced by this. While there are already well-established findings on the attitudes shared by people who participate in the Corona protests, only little is known about the impact of the protests on citizens who do not take part in them. This question is relevant insofar as research has shown that establishing new norms, such as those produced by the pandemic, depends to a decisive degree on the (perceived) norm compliance of fellow citizens. Public protest can be understood as a signal of non-compliance, which could lead to a dwindling acceptance of the measures. At the same time, it can negatively influence the satisfaction with the democracy of those who comply with the measures. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the influence of protests on democracy satisfaction, perceptions of protests, one's own democratic attitudes and solidarity with others, and sheds light on what non-intended effects protest can have. The analysis reveals that trust, positive government evaluation, and societal cohesion result in higher satisfaction with democracy. © 2023, The Author(s).

Studying the Interrelationship between Telecommuting during COVID-19, residential local accessibility, and active travel: a panel study in Montréal, Canada.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a substantial increase in the number of people working from home (telecommuting), in turn leading to unprecedented changes in mobility patterns worldwide. Due to the changing context of the pandemic, there is still a significant gap in knowledge regarding the effects of working from home on workers' travel patterns. The main goal of this work is to unravel the interrelationship between telecommuting during the COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency of active travel for non-work utilitarian purposes, and local accessibility levels around workers' homes. This study uses a longitudinal approach by analyzing travel and telecommuting behavior data from a two-wave survey administered in Montreal in 2019, pre-pandemic, and 2021, during COVID-19 (n = 452). Through a set of weighted multi-level linear regressions, we study the effects of telecommuting on the frequency of active travel for non-work utilitarian purposes, mediated by local accessibility around the household. Results show that the effect of telecommuting on non-work active travel for utilitarian purposes is highly dependent on local accessibility levels around the person's household. For workers living in high local accessibility areas, an increase in telecommuting during the pandemic has induced an increase in active trips for non-work utilitarian purposes. On the other hand, for workers residing in low local accessibility neighborhoods, the effect is the opposite. This research provides insights into the effects of telecommuting on non-work active travel, an area that is currently of interest to policy-makers and practitioners working towards increasing the level of physical activity among individuals through travel.

Determinants of Tourism Demand in Selected EU Med Countries: Empirical Panel Analysis

Due to its significant contribution to the prosperity and growth of economies, the tourism industry has always been the one that attracted the attention of many practitioners and researchers who have tried in different ways and from different aspects to identify the key variables that determine tourism demand. The importance of tourism is especially evident in the group of countries included in the EUrope Mediterranean (EU Med) alliance. Considering the importance and role of tourism, the main objective of this research is to examine the influence of different factors on tourism demand for selected eight countries from EU Med alliance during the period 2010-2020 with the application of a dynamic panel data model. The variables encompassed in the model, i.e., income and trade, show a statistically significant positive influence on tourist arrivals in eight countries from EU Med alliance. The results of the empirical research confirmed the positive impact of previous demand on current demand as well as its statistical significance. On the other hand, we also found that terrorism and Covid-19 negatively impact tourist demand. These results imply that for any country in the eight countries from EU Med alliance to attract more arrivals of tourists, it should invest significantly in the tourism sector in terms of upgrading tourism infrastructure, increasing trade openness and promoting a peaceful reputation and safe country.

An examination of the reciprocal associations between physical activity and anxiety, depressive symptoms, and sleep quality during the first 9 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium.

During the initial outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic, many countries imposed a total lockdown (containment at home). Although it was still allowed in Belgium to be physically active or exercise with people from your household in the vicinity of your home, engaging in sports or physical activity in a group or club context was no longer permitted. To examine whether a lack of physical activity was potentially threatening to the mental well-being of citizens and vice versa, the present study examined concurrent and reciprocal relationships between physical activity and anxiety, depressive symptoms, and sleep quality during the COVID-19 lockdown in a 9-week longitudinal design. In a sample of 983 Belgian adults (75.1% female; M age = 43.78, range = 18-82 years), we explored these relationships at both the between- and within-person levels through random intercept cross-lagged panel models. The findings indicate that more physical activity was associated with lower symptoms of anxiety and depression and better sleep quality, a finding observed both at the between-person (across weeks; ßanxiety = -0.25, ßdepression = -0.30, ßsleep quality = 0.24, p < .001) and within-person level (within weeks; ßanxiety = -0.10, ßdepression = -0.14, ßsleep quality = 0.11, p < .05). Moreover, at the within-person level, an increase in feelings of anxiety and depression at one moment predicted lower levels of physical activity one week later (ßanxiety = -0.04, ßdepression = -0.06, p < .05). Since poor mental health poses a threat to the maintenance of physical activity, the current findings suggest that it is critical to invest in the mental health of individuals during distressing times.

The Longitudinal Relationship Between eHealth Literacy, Health-Promoting Lifestyles, and Health-Related Quality of Life Among College Students: A Cross-Lagged Analysis.

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the longitudinal associations between eHealth literacy, health-promoting lifestyles, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among college students. Methods: From December 2019 (T1) to December 2020 (T2), we administered the eHealth literacy scale, Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12), and Short-Form Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile Scale to 1,181 college students in Jinan, China. Participants were recruited for 12 months for the two-stage survey. Results: Stable positive correlations were shown between eHealth literacy, health-promoting lifestyles, and HRQoL across time. The cross-lagged analysis showed that eHealth literacy at T1 predicted health-promoting lifestyles at T2 (ß = 0.080, P = 0.006); however, health-promoting lifestyles at T1 did not predict eHealth literacy at T2 (ß = -0.026, P = 0.499). HRQoL at T1 predicted health-promoting lifestyles at T2 (ß = 0.147, P < 0.001); however, similar to the eHealth literacy finding, health-promoting lifestyles at T1 did not predict HRQoL at T2 (ß = 0.045, P = 0.142). eHealth literacy was also bi-directionally associated with HRQoL, and the prediction effect of eHealth literacy at T1 to HRQoL at T2 (ß = 0.078, P = 0.008) was slightly higher than the prediction effect of HRQoL at T1 to eHealth literacy at T2 (ß = 0.074, P = 0.023). Conclusion: eHealth literacy and HRQoL may be antecedents for college students' health-promoting lifestyles. There may be significant bi-directional relationships between eHealth literacy and HRQoL.

THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: AN INVESTIGATION ON MEMBER AND CANDIDATE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.

The Covid-19 pandemic in a short time has brought a deep destruction on all the world's economies, and therefore, recession tendencies appeared in the countries. In fact, the world economy contracted by nearly 3.6% in 2020. The impact of the crisis on industrial production was similar. In the second quarter of 2020, when the effects of the crisis were felt more intensely, the economy shrank by 11.3% across the European Union and by 10.5% across the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). World manufacturing output decreased by 6% in the first quarter of 2020 and by 11.2% in the second quarter. This decrease reached 19% in Europe and 23% in emerging market economies. In this study, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the industrial production of the European Union member countries and candidate countries was analyzed using panel data methods, covering the period between March 2020 and December 2021. The findings revealed that the increase in both the number of Covid-19 cases and the number of deaths from Covid-19 in the relevant countries decreased industrial production. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] Covid-19 pandemisi, kısa bir süre içerisinde tüm Dünya ekonomileri üzerinde derin bir tahribata yol açmış ve bunun sonucunda ülkelerde resesyon eğilimleri baş göstermiştir. Öyle ki Dünya ekonomisi 2020 yılında yaklaşık olarak %3.6 oranında daralmıştır. Krizin etkilerinin daha yoğun hissedildiği 2020 yılının ikinci çeyreğinde Avrupa Birliği genelinde ekonomi %11.3, Ekonomik Íşbirliği ve Kalkınma Teşkilatı (OECD) genelinde ise %10.5 oranında küçülme kaydetmiştir. Krizin endüstriyel üretim üzerindeki etkisi de benzer olmuştur. 2020 yılının ilk çeyreğinde Dünya imalat çıktısı %6, ikinci çeyreğinde %11.2 oranında azalmıştır. Avrupa'da bu azalma %19, yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde ise yaklaşık %23 düzeylerine kadar çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada Covid-19 pandemisinin Avrupa Birliği'ne üye ülkeler ile birliğe aday ülkelerin endüstriyel üretimleri üzerindeki etkisi 2020 yılının Mart ayı ile 2021 yılının Aralık dönemini kapsayacak şekilde panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, ilgili ülkelerde hem Covid-19 vaka sayılarındaki hem de Covid-19 kaynaklı vefat sayılarındaki artışın endüstriyel üretimi azalttığını göstermiştir. (Turkish) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute / Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi is the property of Pamukkale University, Social Sciences Institute and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies in the EU Countries for the Young Unemployed People and Implications for the Post-pandemic Period

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed vulnerability of young people in the labour market. Young people are faced with risks and an uncertain future, as well as changing the nature of labour markets. Active labour market policies are addressed as the main instrument to improve employment possibilities of young people in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic situation and its aftermath. This paper analyses the effectiveness of active labour market policies in reducing youth unemployment for the EU-26 Member States using aggregate data. Based on dynamic generalised methods of moments-GMM panel data approach, we find that active labour market policies do not support reduction of youth unemployment. Moreover, unfavourable prospects in the formal sector push young people into the informal sector. Considering the multiple shocks with which young people are being faced with, and the long-term pandemic impact, it suggests the scarring effect for young people. The analysis of the effectiveness of active labour market policy in reducing youth unemployment is of particular policy relevance, as the negative effects of the pandemic COVID-19 crisis are imminent, and the labour market situation is expected to worsen due to the fall in economic activity. Different measures of success would bring societal benefits not only from the public health perspective, but also from the perspective of well-being of young people. Moreover, OECD & European Commission (2022), in their joint policy brief, argue that investing in the growth sectors such as the circular economy, digital economy and the green economy would have the potential to employ young job seekers. © 2022, Kauno Technologijos Universitetas. All rights reserved.

Regional Business Environment, Agricultural Opening-Up and High-Quality Development: Dynamic Empirical Analysis from China's Agriculture

Agriculture is the foundation of every country's survival and development. This paper analyzes the interaction between the business environment, agricultural opening-up and high-quality agricultural economy from the perspective of China's provinces. According to the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2009 to 2019, the empirical analysis was carried out based on the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The results show that there is a quantitative interaction between China's business environment, agricultural opening-up and high-quality agricultural development, and the long-term time effect is very obvious. Specifically, (1) the impact of the business environment and the high-quality development of agriculture on itself is decreasing year by year. The agriculture opening-up itself has a strong impact and has always maintained strong stability. (2) The high-quality development of the agricultural economy has little impact on the business environment and the opening of agriculture to the outside world, but it has a certain stable and continuous effect. It is particularly important that the agricultural opening-up has an increasingly strong effect on the business environment and the high-quality development of the agricultural economy as time progresses. Therefore, we must always adhere to the agriculture opening-up. The regional business environment and the agriculture opening-up can jointly promote the high-quality development of the agricultural economy. The research results can provide a basis and reference for the central and local governments to formulate relevant agricultural development policies and provide a reference for relevant agricultural economic entities and enterprises. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Agronomy is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The Effect of Pollution on the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe.

This study investigates empirically how air pollution in earlier periods as measured by three air pollutants, namely N O 2, P M 10, and P M 2.5 may have affected the spread and fatality of COVID-19 in 31 European countries. Using panel data with fixed effects to examine the relationship between previous exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 new cases and COVID-19 deaths, we find that previous air pollution levels have both acted as an important factor in explaining the COVID-19 spread and its high fatality rate. This result may explain the negative impact that these pollutants may have on health and in particular on the respiratory functions that are mainly attacked by the virus. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at doi:10.1007/s41885-021-00099-y.

New insights into the DPSIR model: Revealing the dynamic feedback mechanism and efficiency of ecological civilization construction in China

Managing ecosystems is considered a "wicked problem" without clear solutions due to the limited understanding of complex ecosystems and social dynamics. In this study, a method based on the Driving forces–Pressures–State–Impacts–Responses (DPSIR) framework was developed to reveal the Ecological Civilization Construction (ECC) together with structural equation modeling (SEM), panel data model (PDM), coupling and coordination degree (CCD) model, and data envelopment analysis (DEA). The SEM reveals that component Responses as exogenous variables can better explain the DPSIR framework nexuses than Driving forces, indicating that environmental protection measures taken by Chinese government played a dominant role in ECC. ECC indexes (ECCI) of 30 Chinese provinces were 18–87% higher in 2019 than 2012, and the PDM demonstrates that temperature, precipitation, and GDP can explain about 87.2% of ECCI variation among 30 provinces. About 12–40% increase in CCD within the DPSIR framework were detected in 30 Chinese provinces in 2019 compared to 2012. The DEA suggests that China's ECC's average comprehensive and technical efficiencies were only 0.62 and 0.77 in 2019, respectively. Meanwhile, these results show that ECC remains to be strengthened and coordinated. Implications on ECC were proposed for some provinces. Overall, this study proposes a Response-driven pathway named RDPSI can explain the achievements and limitation factors in China's ECC. Also, our results emphasize the importance of integrating science and technology, policy formulation, and precise implementation to achieve sustainable development. • A new method for studying the dynamic relationship of the SES is developed. • A sustainable development pathway named RDPSI is proposed. • China has formed a SES of positive feedback cycle, but the system is unstable. • There are increasingly significant spatial correlation issues in 30 Chinese provinces. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Cleaner Production is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)